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4Q12 GDP slowed to 2.1% YoY


Rosstat has released its revised FY12 GDP numbers and published 4Q12 GDP statistics. The preliminary 3.4% YoY print for real GDP growth in FY12 was approved, while the nominal volume of the gross domestic product was revised marginally upwards to RUB 62,599bn (USD 2,015bn).

The recent data is in line with the previously announced FY12 and 9mo12 numbers and underpins that throughout last year the pace of real GDP slowed steadily from almost 5% at the beginning of 2012 to 2.1% YoY in 4Q12.

To recap, according to MinEconomy estimates, the start of 2013 brought a further deterioration in this trend, with almost zero growth in February. This is below even our conservative forecast. However, we are reiterating our view that, after remaining in place in 1Q13, the downwards trend is to start rebounding amid forthcoming monetary policy easing, a recovery in export demand and the positive impact from the agriculture sector. Hence, we are confirming our estimate of FY13 real GDP growth at 2.4%.

Maxim Oreshkin, Daria Isakova
VTB Capital analyst

GDP, dollar

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