The CBR has published the statistics for the average maximum retail deposit rate at the ten largest retail deposit taking banks. For 11–20 March, the rate of 9.71% was down 27bp from the 1–10 March level and coming off from close to record levels of around 10%.
Even though the rate has declined a significant amount, it is still somewhat higher than the 9.65% back in January before the hike caused by the entry of HCFB into the top 10 depositors. We believe that rates will gradually come off as consumer lending slows to 33% in 2013, from 48% in 2012. In terms of NIM, we see no room for a rebound given that banks started to sacrifice margins amid slower loan demand.
Mikhail Shlemov, Svetlana Aslanova
VTB Capital analyst
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