Gasoline wholesale prices decreased in March, and in particular the St Petersburg commodity exchange index for 92-octane gasoline has lost 2% since the beginning of the month, Kommersant reports. According to the paper, a decrease in oil prices and an increase in gasoline supplies from Belarus might be behind the fall.
We believe that the gasoline price decrease is a one-off rather than a sustainable trend. Given that the refinery maintenance season is to start soon, and that domestic demand for gasoline is generally strong, we expect prices to start increasing shortly. We are maintaining our forecast of a 10% increase in gasoline retail prices in 2013. The news is neutral for Russian oils.
Dmitry Loukashov, Alexander Kirevnin, Ekaterina Rodina, Elena Kopylova, Mikhail Zarkhi
VTB Capital analyst
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