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Russian Manufacturing PMI stayed at 52.0


The Russian Manufacturing PMI for February came in at 52.0, the same reading as in January. The new orders sub-index moved down a bit to 55.1 (from the 23-month high of 56.7) and export orders returned to below the 50 mark, printing 49.8 after a significant jump to 50.2 a month ago. Reflecting the lower new order receipts, both output and stocks of finished goods decreased in February (to 52.9 from 53.2 and to 45.7 from 45.8, respectively). Inflationary pressure indicators continued to decline. The output and input prices indices eased for the sixth straight month to 49.8 (from 51.9 in January) and to 52.4 (from 52.5), respectively. The employment component improved to 49.4, from 48.5 in the previous month, although it remained below the 50 mark.

The headline number shows that activity in the manufacturing sector remained at January’s weak levels and reflects the lower growth in total new work intakes (both local and external demands were softer). Inflationary pressure, both in input and output prices, kept following a downwards path (particularly reflecting the cooling economy growth and stronger RUB), thus supporting our expectation that the disinflation trend in core prices is going to continue and that headline CPI peaked for this year in February.

Maxim Oreshkin, Daria Isakova
VTB Capital analyst

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