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EIA STEO and OPEC MOMR: Differing views


The EIA published its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) yesterday. The STEO has a small deficit for 2012 and also for 2013 (both -0.2mmb/d), based on the EIA’s estimate for OPEC production in 2013 of 30.6mmb/d. However, assuming January OPEC production of 30.1mmb/d is held prospectively, then that market undersupply expands to 0.7mmb/d.

There were few notable changes in the EIA’s forecasts from January’s STEO. Global demand forecasts have been raised slightly, with demand for 2013 now expected to reach 90.2mmb/d (+0.1mmb/d MoM) and 91.6mmb/d in 2014 (+0.2mmb/d MoM). Non-OPEC production was cut 0.2mmb/d MoM. That was attributed to lowered Canadian production, in part due to delays from ExxonMobil’s Kearl oil sands project. The EIA also pushed back its anticipated restart of South Sudan production to the second half of the year.

OPEC also reported yesterday, releasing its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR). In contrast to the EIA’s numbers, OPEC has the market oversupplied to the tune of 1.0mmb/d in 2012. For 2013, the oversupply shrinks to 0.5mmb/d, assuming that January OPEC production, reported at 30.3mmb/d and based on secondary sources, is maintained prospectively.

OPEC production has reportedly been sliding since August 2012, largely as a result of Saudi production cuts. However, production estimates for January are mostly flat MoM, with MEES even reporting a marginal increase in production.

The IEA, which is generally regarded as the most authoritative of the major public supply/demand forecasters, publishes its Oil Market Report today. 

Colin Smith, Marc Jacouris
VTB Capital analyst

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