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Key event is CBR policy meeting on Tuesday

This week includes January’s statistics on the federal budget (12-13 February) and the CBR releasing the external trade balance for December (11 February). In addition, on Wednesday Rosstat is due to release its regular weekly CPI data (for 5-11 February). However, heading the list is the CBR’s policy meeting, scheduled for 12 February.

This week, all eyes will be on the regulator’s key rates decision. We do not expect any changes in the base policy rates and suggest that regulator’s tone will become more dovish, focusing on growth risks rather than on inflation.

Among the other important things to watch this week are the following.

Data on the external trade balance in December, which we see remaining near the USD 15bn mark, due to simultaneously stronger imports and exports on beneficial seasonal drivers.

In the report on the fiscal situation in January 2013, we might see a small monthly deficit, given the more even budget execution throughout the year (meaning around RUB 1tn in fiscal spending) and lower oil prices in January 2013 than January 2012 (average Urals was RUB 3,375/bbl vs. RUB 3,443/bbl a year ago, when fiscal revenues exceeded RUB 1tn).

We expect the weekly CPI to point to a deceleration in daily price growth, while the YoY number might stay at 7.1%. 

Maxim Oreshkin, Daria Isakova
VTB Capital analyst

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