The CBR has posted statistics for the maximum retail deposit rates at the top ten largest retail deposit taking banks for 11-20 January. The rate increased 35bp to 10.0% from the 9.65% posted throughout December and the first ten days in January.
The unusual hike in the rate was likely due to the change in the list of banks, with HCFB, which focuses on consumer lending and offers relatively high deposit rates, finally making it into the top ten, replacing Uralsib Bank. Nevertheless, we see the recent stats as a sign of further pressure on banks’ margins from still high funding costs. Lower seasonal demand for loans at the beginning of 1Q13 and CBR policy easing, which we expect in late 1Q13/early 2Q13, might help deposit rates to stabilise and then go south starting in 2Q13. However, we remain cautious on banks’ performance in 2013 and see compressing margins, recovering CoR and weaker lending growth as key negative factors affecting banks’ profitability.
Mikhail Shlemov, Svetlana Aslanova
VTB Capital analyst
Back to the list