Yesterday, Bloomberg printed an interview with First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov concerning monetary policy and other issues. The key takeaways are as follows:
Shuvalov’s comments on monetary policy are eye-catching, especially given that President Vladimir Putin has to announce Ignatiev’s successor by 24 March 2013. We broadly agree with the call for easier monetary policy, but anticipate a cut of just 75bp later this year.
In our view, one of the major risks for inflation in the medium term is monetary policy being too loose. Shuvalov’s other comments are in line with the recent rhetoric from top officials and so are positive to neutral from the market perspective.