CBR announces FY12 preliminary lending stats
The CBR has announced preliminary FY12 banking sector statistics. Retail loan book growth decelerated to 39.3% YoY and corporate to 12.7% YoY from 42.7% and 13.5%, respectively, in November. December growth in retail disappointed, decelerating both MoM and YoY: only 2.2% MoM (vs. 2.4% in November) and down to 39% for FY12. Corporate portfolio growth accelerated to 0.7% MoM from 0.3%, but was nevertheless unimpressive given seasonality. Retail deposits expanded a robust 6.0% MoM, or 19.9% YoY.
December data comes fully in line with our estimates and signals a further decline in demand for loans even given the support from seasonal factors. In 2013 we expect further loan growth deceleration across the sector to 10% YoY in the corporate segment and 26% YoY in retail, as the pressure of high interest rates is set to remain in 1Q13 at least.
Mikhail Shlemov, Svetlana Aslanova
VTB Capital analyst
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