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Trade surplus in November rebounded to USD 15.4bn on lower imports

 
16.01.2013
According to the CBR, the trade surplus in November jumped to USD 15.4bn (from USD 14.5bn in October). Exports declined 4.0% YoY (but added 2.8% MoM SA) to USD 45.4bn. Merchandise imports decreased 1.0% YoY (after a strong increase of 7.3% YoY in October) and 0.3% MoM SA to USD 30.1bn.

The recent reading implies that the trade surplus was hovering near the USD 15bn mark last autumn, which is higher than during the summer but lagging 1H12. While volumes of both imports and exports were lower in November, the decrease in the volume of imports was greater, expanding the trade surplus a bit. Weaker exports were due to a contraction in natural gas and ferrous metals supplies (even given both YoY and MoM SA calculations). In addition, the drop in imports volume flags, in particular, the weak car imports that month. We see bleak prospects for import growth in 1Q13, amid worsening economic conditions; that would be beneficial for the trade balance and RUB over the coming months.

Taking into consideration the CBR’s preliminary estimate of BoP for FY12, we calculate that the trade surplus might reach USD 18.6bn in December (with USD 50bn in exports and USD 31.4bn in imports) which would be the third largest result for 2012 (to be published mid-February). 

Maxim Oreshkin, Daria Isakova
VTB Capital analyst

Tags:
dollar, CBR, gas, ruble

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