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Key events: PMIs for December and GDP breakdown by expenditures in 3Q12

 
24.12.2012
This week, the main event is the release of the manufacturing and services PMI for December. On 28-29 December, Rosstat is set to publish its GDP breakdown by expenditures for 3Q12, while on Wednesday we are set to see the regular release of weekly CPI data. Furthermore, this Friday the CBR is due to release its final estimate of BoP in 3Q12.

The last week of the year is likely to be light on statistics. News that might rouse investor interest are PMIs for December, early indicators for economy. We do not expect any significant change as economic growth will likely remain slow for months to come. Meanwhile, in our view a key driver of GDP growth in 3Q12 remained household demand (note, its share in GDP is around 50%), which was followed by fixed capital investment growth given that Rosstat recently revised investment data for July-September upwards.

Among other important things to watch this week are:

Weekly CPI – will likely show further acceleration in daily price growth, assuming seasonal strengthening in price growth for fruit and vegetables.

On 28 December, the CBR is due to publish its final estimate for 3Q12 BoP – amendments likely only marginal. 

Maxim Oreshkin, Daria Isakova
VTB Capital analyst

Tags:
PMI, GDP, CBR, CPI

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