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November industrial production and statistics report


November IP data is due out today or tomorrow, according to Rosstat’s official schedule. The monthly economic report for November, which includes statistics on growth in real retail sales, fixed capital investment, real and nominal wages, and the unemployment rate, is set to be published by Thursday. Also, Rosstat is to release weekly CPI data for 11–17 December this Wednesday.

Furthermore, on 20 December, President Putin is due to give his ‘Big Press Conference’, the first of his third presidency.

This week, ongoing moderation in the economy is set to remain in the limelight: the situation is fragile and we see it remaining so in the coming months.
We do not expect any positive surprises on the production side. On our calculations, the combined effect of the contraction in electricity and gas production last month (thanks to warm weather) shaved around 0.6pp from November’s YoY IP growth, thus adding to the unfavourable base effect and supporting our estimate of 1.0% YoY.

As for local demand, the latest car sales data (flat YoY) and round of early indicators was disappointing. However, retail lending growth is still strong as banks try to issue new loans before new macroprudential regulations kick in. Hence, real retail sales might have edged up slightly in November, though the medium-term trend is still weak growth. Preliminary customs’ data on imports guides for lower investment growth in November, proving that October’s spike was a one-off. In addition, the unemployment rate likely rose to 5.5% a month ago, while the SA figure likely remained unchanged at 5.6%.

Putin’s ‘Big Press Conference’ might attract investor attention and could provide further insight on structural reforms and investment climate enhancement, as the State of the Nation address was rather light on economic topics.

Among the other things to watch this week is weekly CPI, which might indicate whether or not the stability seen over previous weeks is sustainable.

Maxim Oreshkin, Daria Isakova
VTB Capital analyst

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