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GDP SAAR rebounded to 3.3% in 3Q12

Yesterday, Rosstat approved real GDP growth in 3Q12 at 2.9% YoY and released its breakdown by production. Nominal GDP at current prices was at RUB 15,949bn (around USD 500bn) last quarter.

Given Rosstat’s data, the QoQ seasonally adjusted annualised growth (SAAR) improved to 3.3% in 3Q12, from 1.6% in 2Q12 and 2.7% in 1Q12. So, although the growth looks rather modest in YoY terms due to the base effect, real GDP growth in 3Q12 rebounded in seasonally adjusted QoQ terms.

In addition, we estimate that in 3Q12 the key contributors to YoY GDP growth were unchanged vs. 2Q12: wholesale and retail trade (+1.0pp), real estate (+0.7pp) and financial activity (+0.6pp). Besides, agriculture shaved off just 0.4pp from the real GDP growth last quarter, meaning the negative effect of a poor harvest was significantly milder this year than in 2010 when it cost 1.6pp of YoY growth in 3Q10. Furthermore, real annual growth in non-tradable goods has been declining since the beginning of the year, but slightly recovered in mining during the reported period as compared with 2Q12.

We see GDP growth at 2.4% YoY in 4Q12 and reiterate our full-year forecast of 3.5% YoY for 2012. 

GDP, Rosstat, ruble, dollar
VTB Capital analyst

GDP, Rosstat, ruble, dollar

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