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CBR signals pause and targets lower interest rate volatility

The CBR has left repo rates on hold and given an explicit signal that it considers the current level of interest rates appropriate in light of the near-term risk of inflation and threats to economic growth. Meanwhile, the policymakers reformed the monetary policy framework with a 25bp cut in the FX swap rate and a 25bp hike in the deposit rate. The decision is in line with our expectations and reflects that the tightening cycle has been finished and the CBR is now taking a wait-and-see stance, targeting lower interest rate volatility and a stronger upper bound to the interest rate band. The next policy meeting is to be held during the first half of January. We think the CBR will launch an easing cycle in March-April 2013 amid faltering economic growth and disinflation in underlying numbers.
Maxim Oreshkin, Daria Isakova
VTB Capital analyst

CBR, FX market

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