CBR Deputy Chairman Mikhail Sukhov has announced the preliminary statistics for November. The corporate loan book grew only 0.2% MoM (vs. 1.7% in October), while the retail portfolio expanded 2.4% MoM (vs 2.9%). In YoY terms, growth also decelerated to 13.5% and 41.8%, respectively (vs. 17.1% and 42.7%). Eliminating the 1.6% RUB appreciation, the corporate loan book grew 0.5% MoM and 13.8% YoY. Retail deposits increased 1.8% MoM, rebounding from the 1.1% increase in October.
High interest rates and the worsening macroeconomic backdrop will keep demand for loans muted, we think, with the deceleration in loan growth likely to extend further into 1H13. Recent guidance from the management of Russian banks suggests that the high rate of expansion (especially in consumer lending) is over and we are likely to see more normalised growth.
Mikhail Shlemov, Svetlana Aslanova
VTB Capital analyst
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