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Key event: CBR’s monetary policy decision

This week includes the regular meeting of the CBR’s Board of Directors on monetary policy (today). We also expect November’s statistics on non-CIS imports (customs, likely on Monday), on the sales of new passenger cars (AEB, 10-11 December) and on the federal budget balance (from MinFin, 11-13 December). The CBR is to publish the external trade balance for October (12 December) and Rosstat is to release a first estimate of 3Q12 GDP breakdown by production (10-11 December) and weekly CPI (12 December). This Wednesday, President Vladimir Putin is to deliver the annual address to the Federal Assembly.

This week starts with the CBR’s decision. We expect no changes in repo rates and a more dovish press release switching from inflation risks towards growth-related ones. A cut in the FX swap rate and a 25bp hike in deposit rate are both possible.

The president’s address to the Federal Assembly is likely to grab the headlines as it is the first reference speech to measure how Putin’s goals have been progressing since they were announced on 7 May. The president might touch on plans for 2013 and beyond, on how to quicken investment-driven growth and improve the business climate.

Among other important things to watch this week:

November statistics on non-CIS imports. Will shed more light on the situation with internal demand.

November car sales. We see 3.6% YoY growth, continuing its downward trend.

November’s federal budget balance. We expect a modest surplus of 0.2% of GDP.

Weekly CPI for 4-10 December. Might reveal a further acceleration in fruit and vegetables prices growth on the back of weak core inflation pressures.

External trade balance for October. Shaved off, on lower oil prices coupled with a rebound in imports.

GDP structure by production in 3Q12. Lower growth was likely recorded by export-oriented industries, while the negative effect of a poor harvest was limited. 

Maxim Oreshkin, Daria Isakova
VTB Capital analyst

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