This week starts with the CBR’s decision. We expect no changes in repo rates and a more dovish press release switching from inflation risks towards growth-related ones. A cut in the FX swap rate and a 25bp hike in deposit rate are both possible.
The president’s address to the Federal Assembly is likely to grab the headlines as it is the first reference speech to measure how Putin’s goals have been progressing since they were announced on 7 May. The president might touch on plans for 2013 and beyond, on how to quicken investment-driven growth and improve the business climate.
Among other important things to watch this week:
November statistics on non-CIS imports. Will shed more light on the situation with internal demand.
November car sales. We see 3.6% YoY growth, continuing its downward trend.
November’s federal budget balance. We expect a modest surplus of 0.2% of GDP.
Weekly CPI for 4-10 December. Might reveal a further acceleration in fruit and vegetables prices growth on the back of weak core inflation pressures.
External trade balance for October. Shaved off, on lower oil prices coupled with a rebound in imports.
GDP structure by production in 3Q12. Lower growth was likely recorded by export-oriented industries, while the negative effect of a poor harvest was limited.