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Russian Economy Monthly

 
04.12.2012

CPI for 2012 revised down to 6.8% YoY from 7.3% YoY. Given the ongoing economic slowdown and strong RUB on the back of solid oil prices, we believe that core inflation has stabilised and started to decline.

Liquidity to improve in December. The seasonal deficit of the consolidated budget in the last month of the year is set to support liquidity conditions in the near term. Despite that, this year’s effect will be smaller than in 2011, we think, and the money market monthly average rate might go 50bp lower in January.

CBR keeps rates on hold, voices concern over outlook for the economy. Given decelerating core inflation, we suggest that the CBR has ended the tightening cycle and expect the first easing steps in late 1Q13-early 2Q13.

Month ahead. December is full of addresses from top officials, which might highlight steps towards improving the investment climate, the campaign against corruption and bring more clarity on the future of structural reforms. Also, we shall be looking for unemployment picking up, given seasonality, and for an overall fragile economic performance. 

Maxim Oreshkin, Daria Isakova
VTB Capital analyst

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