The CBR has published statistics on the maximum retail deposit rate at the ten largest retail deposit taking banks. On 21-30 November, the rate climbed a further 5bp to 9.56% from 9.51% in mid-November. The total increase since the beginning of September was 21bp.
The further increase of deposit rates was fuelled by increasing seasonal demand, in our view, with competition for funding tightening, even for larger banks. Meanwhile, we reiterate our view that we will see a further hike in rates by the end of the year, with seasonal deposits pushing the maximum rate up. The negative effect from this trend is likely to be seen in the coming quarters and we expect to see the first signs of pressure on NIM in 3Q12 reporting.
Mikhail Shlemov, Svetlana Aslanova
VTB Capital analyst
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