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Weekly CPI – fruit and vegetable deflation over


According to a report released by Rosstat, CPI increased 0.3% in 1–19 November. Average daily price growth decelerated to 0.013% last week, from 0.021% the previous week, thereby sliding below the 0.022% recorded in 15–21 November 2011.

The detailed breakdown shows that last week’s growth came mainly from WoW price rises in eggs (1.2%), potatoes (0.5%), gasoline (0.1%) and sunflower oil (0.4%). Meanwhile, last week, fruit and vegetable prices started increasing again, recording inflation of 0.1% WoW after three and a half months of deflation.

The most noticeable aspect of the report, in our view, is that fruit and vegetable deflation has come to an end. Beyond this, there was little of note. Given deceleration in daily price growth, we now expect full-month CPI growth in November at 0.5% MoM and 6.6% YoY (vs. 0.5% MoM and 6.5% YoY in October) and are retaining on our view that the CBR has brought to an end its tightening cycle.

Maxim Oreshkin, Daria Isakova
VTB Capital analyst

CPI, Rosstat, CBR

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