The CBR has published statistics for maximum retail deposit rates at the ten largest retail deposit taking banks. For 11–20 November, it increased to 9.51%, from the 9.46% posted in the first ten days of November. Since September (when the new calculation formula was introduced), the rate has increased 11bp setting the new cap for deposit rates in the system at 11.51% (rate +200bp).
The further increase in retail deposit rates is in line with our expectations, as competition for funding in the seasonally active fourth quarter tightens. We expect such elevated rates to have an adverse effect on banks’ margins, not only in 4Q12 but also in 1H13 until the CBR’s easing policy which we expect starts filtering though to P&Ls in 2H13.