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Output and Demand - October


The October data from Rosstat painted a mixed picture. Last month, fixed capital investment grew 4.9% YoY, which might have seemed like a surprise at first glance, but a detailed look at the data means that we anticipate a positive revision for 3Q12. We expect the revised figures due out next week to make the October numbers look less impressive. Retail sales slowed even further due to weak non-food sales; however, the decelerating growth in food prices supported food sales. 

On a positive note, the SA unemployment rate declined. Meanwhile, another downward revision for wage growth does not look supportive for consumption. The overall picture implies a fragile growth outlook. We stick to our forecast that the CBR will bring an end to the tightening cycle and expect to see the first signs of easing in late 1Q13-early 2Q13.

Maxim Oreshkin, Daria Isakova
VTB Capital analyst

Rosstat, CBR

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