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MinFin expects FY12 budget surplus at 0.1-0.2% of GDP


Over the weekend, First Deputy Minister of Finance Tatyana Nesterenko stated that the federal budget might print a 0.1–0.2% of GDP surplus this year.

This is now closer to our FY12 federal budget surplus estimate of 0.3% of GDP and so implies a smaller positive effect from federal budget operations on liquidity than that from the previous official guidance. Now the sum of the federal budget balances for November-December is estimated at around RUB 650-600bn vs. RUB 760bn in early-November. That would be RUB 350-400bn lower than during the last two months of last year.

Maxim Oreshkin, Daria Isakova
VTB Capital analyst

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