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Key event: October statistical report


The monthly economic report for October is to be released at the beginning of this week (due by Wednesday), with data on the growth in real retail sales, fixed capital investment, real and nominal wages, as well as the unemployment rate. This Wednesday, Rosstat is to release the regular weekly CPI data for 13–19 November.

Rosstat’s usual monthly statistics might reveal that both demand and supply cooled further, especially given the poor performance of car sales and decelerating industrial production. At the same time, the strong customs data on October imports (excluding the CIS), the solid performance of PMIs and slightly higher YoY growth pace in lending during the last month, could be treated as a positive signal pointing to investment growth in October. In addition, although we estimate that the NSA unemployment rate increased to 5.4% in October, we forecast that the SA unemployment rate will remain flat at 5.6%.

Among the other important things to watch this week is the weekly CPI release on Wednesday, which might reveal whether the accelerating CPI witnessed during the previous week is sustainable.

Maxim Oreshkin, Daria Isakova
VTB Capital analyst

CPI, Rosstat, PMI, CIS

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