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Low and stable inflation ahead?


Slow growth and surprisingly low inflation are likely to lead to the end of the CBR’s tightening cycle. However, does that mean the CBR has achieved longterm success in fighting inflation in Russia? I believe that we shall not see the answer to this question until 2H13 and that the new CBR governor will be crucial in this respect. We think it will be hard to preserve the proper tightness of the monetary policy while senior officials expect the Russian economy to grow 4–5% YoY.

Maxim Oreshkin
VTB Capital analyst

inflation, CBR, Russia

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