Rosstat has published the first preliminary estimate for real GDP growth in 3Q12: at 2.9% YoY it was lower than the 4.5% YoY in 2H12 and 4.0% YoY in 2Q12.
The figure is slightly stronger than the 2.8% YoY which both we and the Ministry for the Economy expected. According to our calculations, QoQ seasonally adjusted annualised growth edged up to 2.4% YoY in 3Q12, from 1.5% in 2Q12 (but was lower than the 3.7% in 1Q12). Rosstat’s first estimate is in line with our expectations of 3.5% YoY growth for 2012 as a whole.
To note, Rosstat’s first estimate of GDP does not include any breakdown on the constituents of GDP; the first estimate of production breakdown in 3Q12 is to be published on 10–11 December, with the expenditures breakdown coming a bit later, on 28–29 December. For now, we believe that a poor harvest, high base effect and cooling demand dragged GDP growth down in 3Q12.