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Key event: GDP growth in 3Q12 and IP growth in October

 
12.11.2012

This week's macro releases include Rosstat’s first estimate of real GDP growth in July-September 2012 (due on 12-13 November) and, probably, industrial production growth in October (due on 16-19 November). Furthermore, MinFin is set to release the federal budget balance for October and weekly CPI.

Today or tomorrow, Rosstat is due to reveal how fast Russia’s economy grew in 3Q12. We expect to see 2.8% YoY growth, similar to MinEconomy estimates, as the poor harvest and cooling demand dragged GDP growth down over that period, in our view. Meanwhile, this Friday or next Monday, Rosstat is to publish the IP reading for October, which might have gained more than in September due to the favourable calendar factor (October contained 23 working days in 2012, two more than in 2011) and the base effect. Strong PMIs are pointing to an improvement last month. However, weak data released for natural gas exports as well as decelerated rail cargo turnover last month are negative signs.

Among the other important things to watch this week are:

Fiscal statistics for October (12-14 November), which are set to confirm First Deputy Minister of Finance Tatyana Nesterenko’s recent comments on federal budget execution during 10mo12 (namely, the federal budget surplus totalled RUB 717bn, or 1.4% of GDP). We still think that a tighter fiscal policy is likely to have a negative effect on economic growth in the near term.

The weekly CPI release on Wednesday, which we expect to show further acceleration in consumer price growth amid the slowdown in vegetable deflation. 

Maxim Oreshkin, Daria Isakova, Dmitri Fedotkin, Mykyta Mykhaylychenko
VTB Capital analyst

Tags:
GDP, Rosstat, CPI, PMI, gas, ruble

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