Yesterday, First Deputy Chairman of the CBR Alexey Simanovsky announced the preliminary October statistics. The corporate and retail loan books increased 1.4% MoM and 2.9% MoM, respectively (vs. 0.6% and 2.5% in September). To recap, in September the corporate loan book grew 1.5% MoM, excluding the FX effect. Meanwhile, the YoY expansion accelerated (in the corporate segment for the first time in four months) to 17.1% and 42.6% from 16.9% and 41.7% in the previous month. Retail deposits grew 1.0% MoM (0.2% in September).
The strong start to the fourth quarter was in line with the seasonal trends and we expect further strong lending growth by YE12. However, in our view YoY growth will decelerate with demand for loans likely to slow further in 2013. The rebound in retail deposits suggests increased activity by banks, which have started attracting funds for the seasonally active quarter. This also suggests a further increase in deposit rates that we expect to affect banks’ margins in the coming quarters.