According to Vedomosti, wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel fuel increased on average 9% MoM in September. In particular, 95-octane gasoline increased 11%, 92-octane gasoline price was up 8.6% and diesel fuel prices gained 3.4% MoM. Gasoline retails prices increased 2% MoM. Overall, wholesale prices have increased 10.6% YTD, while retail prices are up 4%.
The increase in gasoline retail prices is broadly in line with our forecast of 6% growth YoY in 2012.We expect such growth to be driven by high domestic demand and a lack of new refining capacity. We see the increase as positive for Russian oils. The more rapid increase in wholesale prices is positive for Russian oils’ wholesale business, while their retail business might also benefit from pressure on independent retailers due to tightening retail margins.
Dmitry Loukashov, Alexander Kirevnin, Ekaterina Rodina, Elena Kopylova, Mikhail Zarkhi
VTB Capital analyst
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