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CBR announces retail deposit interest rate stats for 11-20 October

The CBR has published statistics for the maximum retail deposit rate in the top-ten largest retail deposit taking banks. In 11-20 October, the rate continued to grow, to 9.45% from 9.40% in 1-10 October and 9.35% in September, pushing the CBR max limit to 11.45% (the rate +200bp).

Given the seasonal increase in activity and high competition among banks for funding, we expect deposit rates to grow further by the end of the year: the recent retail deposit rate hike by the two largest players might lead to other banks following their example. Furthermore, the possible inclusion of some consumer lending banks in the list of the top ten largest retail deposit taking banks would push the indicator further up. All in all, this suggests a further increase the CBR cap and growing pressure on banks’ margins in coming quarters, given that the fourth quarter is the ‘hot season’ for deposits, accounting for 38-48% of FY inflows.

We are reiterating our view that NIM will stay flat or slightly widen in 2H12, as the repricing of assets will be in our view offset by a higher cost of funding, while in 2013 we expect margins to decline 25-30bp, putting pressure on earnings together with expected slowdown in lending growth. 

Mikhail Shlemov, Svetlana Aslanova
VTB Capital analyst


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