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September industrial production and statistical report

The industrial production data for September is to be released at the beginning of this week. Meanwhile, Rosstat is due to publish its monthly economic report for the month by this coming Thursday.

Rosstat’s usual monthly statistics include the report on industrial production (due by Tuesday) and monthly economic report (due by Thursday). The August report on IP implied that growth returned to nearly 2.0%, which we see remaining during September despite the significantly negative calendar factor but supported by the low base effect.

At the same time, given the poor performance of car sales, weak preliminary numbers on non-CIS imports and decelerating lending statistics for September, we do not expect any positive surprises in the data for September’s retail sales and investment activity. Besides, we see both SA and NSA unemployment rates as being almost flat last month (around 5.6% and 5.2%, accordingly).

Among the other important things to watch this week the weekly CPI release on Wednesday, which might reveal whether the rapid CPI growth trend witnessed during the previous week is sustainable. 

Maxim Oreshkin, Daria Isakova
VTB Capital analyst

Rosstat, CIS, CPI

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