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Consumer confidence deteriorated in 3Q12


According to Rosstat, Russian consumer confidence worsened to -6% in 3Q12 (from -4% in 2Q12), with poor readings in almost all components. The age breakdown revealed that the greatest decline was among those aged 50+ and the least among the young (16-29 years old).

On the sub-index level, the index of the expected economic changes in the short term was the key drag, decreasing to -2% during last quarter from +4% in 2Q12 (and the first negative value since 3Q11). At the same time, the index of past economic changes dropped to -2% (from -1% in the previous quarter), the index of expected changes in the level of incomes was down to -3% (from -1%) and the index of past changes to the level of incomes also weakened to -5% (from -4%). The index of favourable timing to make big purchases kept progressing and added to -17% (from - 18%), while the index of favourable conditions to make savings has remained unchanged at -33%. 

We had expected a low reading for the consumer confidence index in 3Q12. Worldwide tensions might have dented consumer confidence last quarter, as the poll was performed in August, probably prior to new monetary stimuli from global central banks. We expect that accelerating CPI (to 7.3% Dec/Dec) and a weaker RUB (34.12 by end-2012), as well as a softer increase in fiscal spending (around 7% YoY on average for September-December) and state wages might keep consumer confidence low during 4Q12.
Maxim Oreshkin, Daria Isakova
VTB Capital analyst

Rosstat, Russia, CPI, ruble

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