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Key event: external trade

 
08.10.2012
This week's macro releases include the federal budget balance for September, external trade for August and preliminary data for September as well as weekly CPI, sales of new passenger cars and LCVs, and Rosstat’s consumer confidence index for 3Q12.

On Wednesday or Thursday, the CBR is to release the external trade balance for August, while today-tomorrow customs are likely to publish the first estimate of non-CIS imports for September. We expect the trade balance to rebound from July’s level due to slower imports (preliminary customs data for non-CIS showed a sharp drop in volatile components and weak investment goods import) and greater exports on higher oil and (likely improved) gas export volumes on the back of stronger gas production. September’s data is important from the point of how import dynamics are developing in a situation of slowing internal demand growth.

On 8-9 October, Rosstat is to publish its consumer confidence index for 3Q12. Better than expected economic conditions overall might underpin consumer confidence at similar levels to 2Q12 (-4), but a stabilising saving ratio points to some risks of a deterioration in household confidence.

Among the other important things to watch this week.

Light vehicle and car sales for September (today or tomorrow), that provide a first estimate as to whether the momentum in consumer demand growth has improved or not.

Fiscal statistics for September (9-11 October), might also print a surplus, however not as large as in August, as growth in expenditures will likely rebound from the weak YoY print in August. Nevertheless, the growth in expenditures is set to remain anaemic in the last months of the year.

The weekly CPI release on Wednesday, which we expect to show whether the recent slowdown in average daily prices growth is stable. End of tariff growth would be compensated by a further slowdown in vegetable deflation. 

Maxim Oreshkin, Daria Isakova
VTB Capital analyst

Tags:
Rosstat, CPI, CBR, CIS, oil, gas

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