According to Vedomosti, the government has delivered to the Presidential Administration a strategy for reforming the pension system through 2030, reducing the funded part to 2% (from current 6%) and making it completely voluntary. There is no explicit timeline for abandoning the funded part, but the first stage is defined as 2013-15 (for the reduction to be put into practice), while the second stage (2016-20) implies more stimulus for employees to deliver another 2% of their salaries to the funded part. In separate news, the former Minister of Finance Alexey Kudrin doubts the MinLabour's calculations, which point to a significant margin for those pensioners who use only the pay-as-you-go part in comparison with those who accumulate resources in funded part, and plans to show more sound estimations of the difference.
As the deadline is set for the end of the year, we expect to see more debates around the pension system reform and more convincing arguments for keeping the funded part unchanged. In our view, it will be important to watch for the position of President Vladimir Putin and note that our upcoming Russia Calling investment forum might provide more clarity on this topic.
Maxim Oreshkin, Daria Isakova
VTB Capital analyst
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