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The key event is September’s CPI and BoP for 3Q12

 
01.10.2012
This week's macro releases include the Consumer Price Index for September, the CBR’s preliminary 3Q12 BoP estimate as well as Manufacturing and Services PMIs for September and the weekly CPI for the week ending 1 October. Furthermore, the CBR's monthly meeting (due on 1-10 October) and publication of Rosstat’s consumer confidence for 3Q12 (due on 3-8 October) might also take place this week.

This week, Rosstat is due to publish September CPI (we forecast the headline to reach 6.6% YoY and Rosstat’s core CPI tot total 5.7% YoY).

On Tuesday, the regulator is likely to provide its first CA surplus estimate and net capital balance for 3Q12. We think the CA surplus might be narrower in 3Q12 given that average oil prices were almost the same in the second and third quarters; however, imports increased and seasonality in the services balance was unfavourable.

At the same time, the consumer confidence index for 3Q12 (better than expected overall economic conditions) might underpin consumer confidence at a similar level to 2Q12 (-4); however, the stabilising saving ratio indicates household confidence could deteriorate.

It is worth noting that the CBR might hold its monthly monetary policy meeting this week. We do not expect any changes to key rates, as money market rates jumped visibly after the hike in September (RUONIA exceeded 6.0% in recent days), while the economy is cooling. At the same time, the accelerating headline and Rosstat’s core CPI still pose risks of further tightening in 4Q12. In this regard, CPI statistics for September are set to deliver more ground for the CBR to hike key rates in October.

Among the other important things to watch this week are.

Manufacturing PMI today and Services PMI on Wednesday, which are set to provide the first estimate of how the economy performed in September;

Weekly CPI on Wednesday, which will likely point to a slowdown of deflation in fruit and vegetables and persistent growth in prices of wheat-related products. 

Maxim Oreshkin, Daria Isakova
VTB Capital analyst

Tags:
CPI, CBR, Rosstat, oil, PMI

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