The CBR has announced interest rate statistics for August that suggest little changed MoM. Corporate lending rates stayed flat MoM at 10.0%, while retail term deposit rates slid 0.1pp to 7.6%. As a result, the spread widened 0.1pp to 3.4%.
Low demand in the corporate segment has kept lending rates unchanged. However, we expect the CBR hike in interest rates in September will push lending rates across the sector even higher. This, together with a deteriorating backdrop, will likely result in further deceleration in lending growth in the corporate segment. Meanwhile, the widening of the spread supports our view that NIM will rebound in 2H12, although retail deposit rates that remain high would likely partially offset the repricing of assets.
Mikhail Shlemov, Svetlana Aslanova
VTB Capital analyst
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