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Key event is weekly CPI


The only important macro data this week is the weekly CPI release on Wednesday. However, on 27 September Rosstat is to publish the first estimate of GDP breakdown by expenditures for 2Q12. The CBR is to release the final BoP estimate for 2Q12.

In separate news, according to Vedomosti the MinLabor has submitted a new draft Pension System Reform Strategy to the government. The main news is that for 2013-14 the current funded part will remain unchanged. The MinLabor is continuing with the gradual transformation of the mandatory funded part into a voluntary one, but now beginning with 2015: 6% of salaries are to be completely delivered into the ‘pay as you go’ part and an employee is to decide individually whether to save or not. Anybody deciding to save will be obliged to save 2% of their salary in addition to the base 6% for his/her own future pension. 

We expect this week to be fairly light in terms of data releases. On Wednesday, Rosstat is due to publish weekly inflation which is likely to reflect the same performance as in the previous week (we might see YoY CPI growth remaining at 6.4%).

As far as GDP growth is concerned, household consumption was the key growth driver during 2Q12, while investment was also strong, and net exports were weaker on the back of external demand being lower than in 1Q12.

Meanwhile, we do not expect any meaningful changes in the 2Q12 BoP numbers.

As 1 October is the deadline for the government to submit the final draft of the budget for 2013-15, we expect to see more news. The issue of particular interest is the discussion on reforming the pension system in the coming months as, according to Medvedev, the deadline for debates on pension system reform is 31 December 2012. Given the new draft of the Strategy, the funded part is to be unchanged in two next years, which we consider to be supportive for developing Russia’s financial markets. Preserving the funded part is crucial for increasing the investment share in GDP. 

Maxim Oreshkin, Daria Isakova
VTB Capital analyst

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