Industrial production data for August is to be released at the beginning of this week, while Rosstat is due to publish its regular statistical report on socio-economic activity for the month by the end of the week.
Rosstat’s usual monthly statistics include the report on industrial production (due by Tuesday) and the report on the overall economic condition (due by Thursday). July’s report on IP pointed to growth accelerating (to 3.4% YoY, from 1.9% YoY), which was mostly supported by the favourable calendar effect. Hence, we see IP growth returning to a growth path of around 2.0% YoY.
At the same time, July’s data on retail sales and investment activity disappointed, with a slowdown (which we expect to continue). Our estimates for August are retail sales growth at 4.5% YoY (vs. 5.1% YoY in July) and fixed capital investments at 2.0% YoY (vs. 3.8% YoY), as preliminary numbers on non-CIS imports reflected weakening imports of investment goods. Besides, we see the unemployment rate decreasing to 5.2% (from 5.4% during last three months), dragged down by seasonality.
Maxim Oreshkin, Daria Isakova
VTB Capital analyst
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