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GDP SAAR down 1.1pp to 0.4% in 2Q12, despite strong 4.0% YoY

Last Friday, Rosstat approved real GDP growth in 2Q12 at 4.0% YoY and released its breakdown by production. Nominal GDP at current prices was at RUB 14,571bn (USD 470bn) last quarter.

Given Rosstat’s data, the QoQ seasonally adjusted annualised growth (SAAR) slowed to just 0.4% in 2Q12, from 2.5% in 1Q12 and 6.5% in 4Q11. So, although the growth looks rather solid in YoY terms due to the base effect, real GDP growth in 2Q12 moderated significantly in seasonally adjusted QoQ terms.

In addition, we estimate that in 2Q12 the key contributors to the 4.0% YoY GDP growth were wholesale and retail sales (+1.4pp), which remained the key driving force, real estate (+0.9pp) and financial activity (+0.8pp). However, taking into consideration the contribution of GDP to SAAR growth implies that the leading inputs of wholesale and retail sales and real estate were equal (at +0.8pp), and also that there was a notable contribution from the construction industry (+0.6pp), while mining and financial sectors posed a drag on growth (-0.5pp and -0.4pp, respectively). Both the quarterly and the yearly picture tell the same story: growth is concentrated in nontradable goods and services on the back of the strong internal demand dynamics, while tradables are suffering from weak global demand and high capacity utilisation/tight labour market.

We see GDP growth cooling further and are reiterating our full-year forecast of 3.5% YoY for 2012. At the same time, we are concerned about the downside risks to this estimation due to fiscal, harvest, lending and external demand constraints. 

Maxim Oreshkin, Daria Isakova
VTB Capital analyst

GDP, Rosstat, ruble, dollar

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