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Key event is CPI and lending statistics for August

This week's macro releases include the consumer price index and the CBR’s preliminary data on lending in August, as well as Manufacturing and Services PMIs and the weekly CPI. Over next weekend, the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting is to be held, ending with the adoption of the final declaration that includes the outcome of APEC's work in 2012 and an outline of the prospects for developing the region in the future.

This week, all eyes will be on the CPI statistics for August and for the week ending 3 September. Given that the headline CPI is likely to reach 6.0% YoY in August and exceed the 6.0% mark not later than mid-September (and possibly before the CBR’s next decision, scheduled for the first half of September), it is important to see how much core CPI added in August (in July, it stood at 5.3% YoY, compared with the upper boundary of the CBR’s target for full-year core inflation growth of 5.5% YoY). Once it crosses the 5.5% threshold, the monetary authorities will not have any argument significant enough to postpone tightening in order to curb inflation. In this regard, the statistics on lending growth in August (due to be published next week) are set to bring more understanding on whether the CBR will hike key rates in September.

Among the other important things to watch this week:

Manufacturing PMI today and Services PMI on Wednesday, to give a first estimate of how the economy fared in August.

APEC final declaration is likely to support new avenues of development for Siberia and the Russian Far East, as well as broaden economic cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region. 

Maxim Oreshkin, Daria Isakova
VTB Capital analyst

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