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Key event is industrial production data

This week's macro releases include industrial production and the fiscal balance for July, as well as the weekly CPI.

This week, Rosstat is to start publishing macroeconomic data for July, with the report on industrial production. June’s report showed just 1.9% YoY growth on the back of the high base effect, a contraction in gas production and weak readings from metals and construction materials. This month, we expect growth to rebound above 3.0% despite the still weak export demand (which is to weigh once again on gas and metals production). A higher figure would give the CBR more reason to hike base rates 25bp in September.

Among other important things to watch this week:

Fiscal statistics for July on Monday, which we expect to confirm the idea that, despite lower oil prices, a weak RUB helps to protect the fiscal balance. Moreover, in the July report we might see the first signs of the growth in budget expenditures slowing down. To recap, we expect outlays to show just 5% YoY growth in 2H12 after 28% YoY in 1H12 due to changed seasonality this year.

The weekly CPI release on Wednesday, which we expect to show that headline YoY growth continues to accelerate, with the headline reaching 5.8% (one step closer to the important 6.0% threshold).

Maxim Oreshkin, Daria Isakova
VTB Capital analyst

CPI, Rosstat, ruble

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