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State government does not expect grain export embargo


According to Vedomosti, the Russian government does not expect a grain export embargo and price interventions in 2012. Coupled with last year’s reserves, the forecasted harvest of 75-80mn tons is seen as sufficient for domestic needs, leaving 10-12mn tons for export.

The development is likely to put upside pressure on domestic grain prices. The outlook for the global harvest is fairly modest this year, and world grain prices have already surged 30% YTD. There is healthy demand for Russian grain which, coupled with the absence of an embargo, does not bring any relief to in-house grain prices (+40% YTD).

Ivan Kushch, Maria Kolbina, Nikolay Kovalev
VTB Capital analyst

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