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Ministry of Agriculture downgrades grain harvest


Vedomosti has quoted Agriculture Minister Nikolay Fedorov as saying that the grain harvest forecast has been downgraded to 75mn tons (in a bearish scenario), from 80-85mn tons in mid-July. The Ministry has also revised its export expectations to 12mn tons, from 16-18mn tons before.

This latest downward revision brings the government’s expectations closer to those of independent agriculture agencies (77mn tons from the Russian Institute for Agricultural Markets Studies, or IKAR). Coupled with last year’s reserves of 18mn tons, the current harvest is still sufficient to cover annual domestic needs of around 72mn tons. However, the pricing pressure is intensifying as domestic (Russian) wheat prices are up 35% YTD to RUB 7,500–7,800/ton mainly on the back of global as well as domestic undersupply.

Ivan Kushch, Maria Kolbina, Nikolay Kovalev
VTB Capital analyst

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