Vedomosti has quoted First Deputy Head of the CBR Alexey Simanovsky as saying that in 2012 he expects the retail loan book to grow 40-44% YoY and the corporate book to increase 18-22% YoY. All in all, he increased his forecast for the total portfolio to grow 24-28% (up from 20-25%). To recap, in June the sector’s loan book increased 28.9% YoY (including 24.4% corporate and 44.1% retail).
The banking sector statistics suggest strong demand in the retail segment, while the deceleration in the corporate loan book growth indicates the slowdown in economic growth that we expect in 2H12. We are more cautious in our forecasts for FY12, expecting the retail and corporate portfolios to grow 30% YoY and 13% YoY, respectively, on the back of macroeconomic headwinds reducing growth rates in 2H12. Nevertheless, we see upside risks to our assumptions for the retail segment.