The CBR has published its June interest rates statistics on corporate loans and retail deposits of up to one yea. The key takeaways are as follows.
Corporate rates increased further to 10.1%, from 10.0% in May, returning to the levels of July-August 2010, with the 3-month moving average up 0.1pp. In 2Q12, the average rate increased 0.47pp QoQ.
The spread widened 0.1pp to 3.3% although retail term deposit rates edged up to 8.0% (their highest level since May 2010). Meanwhile, the 3-month moving average for retail term deposits increased 0.3pp since June, with the 2Q12 average at 0.6pp QoQ.
If we assume the underlying effect with a lag of several months, this data supports our view that we shall see NIM recover on the back of asset repricing in 2H12. However, the pressure of high funding costs remains, thus limiting the possible rebound. In 2H12, we expect widening margins to compensate for the expected deceleration in lending growth, supporting banks’ bottom lines.