The CBR published Russian banking sector preliminary June statistics, which indicate 1.1% RUB devaluation had little effect on the sector’s performance. The key takeaways are as follows:
Corporate loan book increased 1.3% MoM with YoY expansion slightly down to 24.3%. Retail portfolio grew 3.3% MoM, while YoY growth accelerated to 44.4%.
Retail deposits further expanded 2.6% MoM, while corporate accounts declined 0.7% MoM. YoY was at 22.0% and 18.4% respectively.
Despite a rebound in corporate loan book growth (in May it stayed broadly flat MoM, excluding FX effect) and still robust retail lending growth, we expect deceleration in lending growth in 2H12 amid macroeconomic headwinds, as July-August will likely bring seasonally weak statistics.