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In the week ending 6 July, the CBR's gross international reserves decreased USD 1.5bn to USD 511.4bn.


According to the official data, the CBR’s net selling during the reported period (2-6 July) amounted to USD 0.35bn (RUB 11bn). We estimate that other factors driving the headline change in the CBR’s reserves were an increase in gold prices (+USD 1.4bn) and EUR strengthening against USD (+USD 0.4bn). The combined effect of the revaluation was positive and even greater than the CBR’s net FX selling that week. Hence, we see a technical factor to the decrease in the CBR’s reserve in the first week of July: in our view, it was a settlement of the CBR’s O/N FX swap opened in the previous week. Given the officially published data on the CBR’s interventions, the regulator’s total FX selling on the local currency market stood at about USD 0.5bn in July MTD (vs. -USD 2.4bn in June).

Maxim Oreshkin, Daria Isakova
VTB Capital analyst


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