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CPI added 0.8% in 1-9 July

According to Rosstat, during 1-9 July CPI reached 0.8%. During the reported period (3-9 July) prices were up 0.3%, with average daily price growth softening to 0.038% from 0.268% in the previous week (but above the 0.005% for 5-11 July last year. The key drivers of the weekly price growth last week remained unchanged: fruit and vegetables (+2.0%) and tariff hikes across the board (water supply (hot water - +1.0% and cold water - +0.6%), central heating (+0.9%), public services (+0.7%), electricity (+0.6%), and public transport (+0.5-0.1%)).

We still think that the ongoing increase in fruit and vegetable prices (especially the latter), as well as the second round effect from tariff hikes and a weaker RUB, might push CPI higher later this year. Active CPI growth during the first days of July was expected since the tariff hikes had been switched from 1 January to 1 July. Hence, we are reiterating our forecasts for July of 1.2-1.3% MoM and 5.5-5.7% YoY (from 0.9% MoM and 4.3% YoY in June). Given that the growth in consumer prices might exceed the CBR’s target of 6.0% Dec/Dec even in 3Q12, we think that the regulator is to begin monetary policy tightening later this year. However, the CBR will likely keep interest rates unchanged at its next policy meeting, on 13 July, in our view.

Alexey Moiseev, Maxim Oreshkin, Daria Isakova
VTB Capital analyst

Rosstat, CPI

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