Exports in May did not show any significant drop in oil prices during that month (average Urals declined 7.7% MoM in May to USD 109/bbl, from USD 118/bbl in April) due to advanced contracts in the sector. However, oil prices kept softening in June and we expect export figures to come much lower next month. We still think that the low (and even negative in past two months) annual growth of imports is misleading due to the high base effect and expect growth rates to rebound soon. Hence, we think that the trade balance likely worsened in June towards USD 15bn. This process is set to continue in the coming months supported by unfavourable seasonality. As a result, we think that the trade balance could decline towards USD 10bn in July-August, bringing the current account surplus closer to the breakeven point. That would add significant downward pressure on RUB in 3Q12 (we expect the dualcurrency basket to reach RUB 37.0 at the end of September).