According to Rosstat, during 1- 25 June CPI reached 0.53%. In the reported period alone (19-25 June) prices were up 0.15% with daily price growth accelerating to 0.021% from 0.018% in the previous week (for the same week last year, it was just 0.004%). The key drivers of the weekly price growth were still vegetables (+3.8% for 19-25 June), poultry and meat (+0.6- 0.8%) and public transport, except the metro (+0.2-0.5%).
Weekly CPI growth remains significantly above last year’s levels, spurred on by the strong growth in vegetable prices which, due to the abundant harvest in 2011, came later this year than the typical seasonal pattern. Last year, vegetable prices declined significantly in the same week of June as they were coming down from the extremely high values of 1Q11 (themselves a result of the 2010 drought). This high base effect is pushing the YoY growth in vegetable and food prices higher.
We are keeping our June CPI forecast at 0.6% MoM and 4.0% YoY (vs. 0.5% MoM and 3.6% YoY in May), but see some risks of CPI overshooting this value. Next week’s data will, in our view, show a significant upward shift in the headline CPI YoY growth rates as it will include the regulated tariff hike on 1 July (which, last year, occurred on 1 January).