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Agriculture Ministry revises grain harvest estimation downward to 85mn tons


Vedomosti has quoted Agriculture Minister Nikolay Fedorov as saying that the 2012/13 grain harvest in Russia will amount to 85mn tons, which fully satisfies domestic needs and leaves 20mn tons for export. This is a downward revision from the previous forecast of 94mn tons and industry experts consider that the risks are skewed to the downside from this figure.

A harvest of 85mn tons is equal to the average over the last three years and is significantly above the abnormally low harvest in 2011 (64mn tons). Indeed, in addition to satisfying domestic demand it also implies healthy export potential. However, the reduction of 9mn tons might put upward pressure on global, and therefore on local, grain prices in the near future.

Ivan Kushch, Maria Kolbina, Nikolay Kovalev
VTB Capital analyst


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